Thursday, September 27, 2007 10:06:32 AM
Kristin Gerlach on NBC Nightly News - The state of the Real Estate Market
Click on the link below to see Kristin Gerlach on NBC News, talking about the state of the Real Estate marketplace in the Washington, DC area.
 

Thursday, September 27, 2007 11:13:39 AM
New Home Prices Soar
Montgomery Home Prices A 7-Figure Shock

By Philip Rucker and Nancy Trejos
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, September 27, 2007; D01

In a trend Montgomery County officials called shocking, the median price for a newly constructed single-family detached home in Montgomery rocketed to a record high of $1.13 million in the first quarter of this year, according to government data released yesterday.

The figure, up from $881,600 last year, underscores the escalating cost of new construction in the Washington region and is a troubling sign for officials seeking affordable housing solutions.

Although specific home sales data were not available for all jurisdictions in the region, it appears Montgomery has the area's most expensive new homes. The median price of new single-family homes in Fairfax County was $965,200 last month, according to county data.

In the District, the median sales price for single-family homes, the majority of which are existing, was $534,450 last month, according to the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors.

Montgomery's new-construction home prices are soaring, county officials said, because developers are responding to the downturn in the housing market by focusing on building large, high-end homes for affluent buyers.

Karl Moritz, research chief of the Montgomery County Planning Board, which released the report, said the data show that construction of new middle-market homes has tapered.

"What we see when we look at the data, though, is not so much that all the houses are becoming more expensive, but that in the current market, builders stopped building middle-of-the-market houses," Moritz said. "What they continued to build was the most expensive."

Board Chairman Royce Hanson said the $1.1 million figure is "pretty startling."

"I don't know that we expected it would go over a million," Hanson said. "In 2006, it was just under $900,000, but this reflects a robust market in big houses. Single-family homes are tending to be larger."

The housing market across the nation has softened over the past two years, with median prices falling in many areas. The tightening in lending standards as a result of a rise in foreclosures has further weakened the market.

But experts said Montgomery has several factors that insulate it, such as a strong job market, proximity to downtown Washington, strong schools and a generally well-run government.

"It's a very competitive place, and there isn't as much land to build on, and so it's going to build at a high price," said Peter Morici, a University of Maryland economist who added that the $1.1 million figure is not surprising.

Meanwhile, median prices -- the point at which half the homes are sold for more and half for less -- for townhouses as well as existing single-family detached homes remained stagnant this year.

In Montgomery, newly constructed townhouses were $505,462, and existing single-family detached homes were $540,000, modest declines from 2007. The median price for existing townhouses increased slightly, to $364,000.

Reflecting a housing market that has cooled nationally, the number of homes sold in the first quarter of 2007 fell compared with the same period in previous years. For example, 98 newly constructed, single-family detached homes were sold in the first quarter of 2007 compared with 195 in the first quarter of 2006, according to the report.

Still, officials said the report represents an alarming trend for Montgomery, a county that has some of the region's most expensive homes and where affordable housing is scarce.

County Council Member Marc Elrich (D-At Large) said developers are "catering to very, very high ends of the market."

"I think a lot of the folks in the other income brackets have been squeezed," Elrich said.

County Executive Isiah Leggett (D), who has decried the county's dwindling supply of affordable housing, expects a task force report this fall to outline ways the county can make inexpensive homes and apartments more available.

A combination of condo conversions and redevelopment in the county's more urban communities, such as Wheaton and Bethesda, have hampered efforts to keep mid-priced and low-cost housing available for rent and purchase.

Barbara Goldberg Goldman, who co-chairs Leggett's task force, said affordable housing in the county has reached "crisis proportions."

"We several years ago . . . claimed that we are approaching crisis proportions, and lo and behold, we are here," she said.

Montgomery now has more than 16,000 families on the waiting list for the federal government's housing choice program, which provides rental subsidies, said Tedi Osias, legislative director at Montgomery's Housing Opportunities Commission.

There are 4,500 more families on the county's public housing waiting list, she said.

"Frankly, long before the median price passed the $1 million mark, there's been a dire problem in Montgomery about how to make housing affordable for people who don't make a lot of money," Osias said.

Staff writers Miranda Spivack and Kristin Downey contributed to this report.


Thursday, September 27, 2007 12:31:01 PM
New Home News
New Home Sales and Prices Off Sharply in August

New home sales in August plunged to their lowest rate in over seven years, as tighter credit and rising inventories continued to cripple a national housing industry that was booming only a year ago.

Purchases of new homes fell to an annual rate of 795,000, an 8.3 percent decline from July, as inventory levels rose to their highest level since March. The median price for a new home was down 7.5 percent from a year ago, to $225,700, the Commerce Department said this morning.

The sales figures were released as KB Home, a major home builder, reported a $35.6 million loss in the third quarter, or 46 cents a share, compared to net profits of $153.2 million a year earlier. KB Home, based in Los Angeles, had a 32 percent drop in revenue from the same period last year.

KB was forced to write down almost $800 million in inventory and goodwill value after the subprime mortgage crisis caused turmoil in the credit market and high rates of foreclosure. Those losses outpaced the company’s gains from selling its 49 percent stake in a French subsidiary. The company’s stock was up 0.54 percent, to $24.22, in early trading.

The latest data gave a fuller picture of the distress in the housing sector. This morning’s news comes on the heels of a 4.3 percent drop in existing home sales and a dismal third-quarter report from Lennar, another large home builder that recorded the largest quarterly loss in its history. New home sales are now down over 21 percent from a year ago.

“Our third quarter results reflect the seriously challenging market conditions that prevail for home builders across most of the nation,” KB’s chief executive, Jeffrey Mezger, said in a statement. “At this time, we see no signs that the housing market is stabilizing and believe it will be some time before a recovery begins.”

Analysts concurred, predicting that the disappointing numbers were only the start of a continued decline in the housing sector that could stretch across multiple quarters.

“Anybody that’s expecting a turnaround in housing anytime soon is going to be disappointed,” said Mike Schenk, a senior economist at the Credit Union National Association. “It’s going to be a long, slow process.”

In a spot of sunlight for the economy, the number of new unemployment claims filed last week dipped to 298,000, its lowest level since early May. The figure, a 15,000 decrease from the week ended Sept. 14, beat analysts’ expectations, though some analysts warned against extrapolating a trend from a single week’s data.



Thursday, September 20, 2007 4:01:23 PM
Fed Cut Helps Markets

Fed cut could buoy housing markets

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com

NEW YORK -- The Federal Reserve's aggressive half-point cut Tuesday could provide support for a slumping housing market.

A quarter-point drop had already been priced into the market for Treasury bills and other instruments tied to mortgage rates, according to Richard DeKaser, chief economist for National City Corp. The deeper cut means mortgage rates may have a little more room to fall, giving support to prices.

Home prices are expected to slump through 2008

The Fed Funds rate affects a range of consumer loans including home equity and mortgages. Lower mortgage rates would add to the number of home buyers able to afford to make purchases, increasing demand for properties and buoying home prices. Buyers generally care less about the actual purchase price than they do about the size of their payments. If rates drop, so will monthly debt obligations

Interest rates for conforming loans -- those of no more than $417,000 -- are already reasonably low, averaging 6.31 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan.

But there's an important class of loans that might benefit from the big cut: the high-ticket home mortgages known as non-conforming or jumbo loans. These loans have no guaranteed secondary market because they exceed the $417,000 cap, and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will not buy them.

With investors wary about any loan perceived as carrying the least bit of risk, jumbo rates have risen in recent months. They carry rates about a full point higher than conforming loans. Jumbos are especially important in high-priced housing markets such as New York, California , Washington D.C. and Boston.

Jumbo rates may come down if the cut makes consumers more confident, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.

However, the real problem in the housing market is not interest rates, according to Keith Gumbinger, vice president for HSH Associates, a mortgage industry publisher. It is that there is not enough money available for making loans.

"The liquidity problem hasn't changed," Gumbinger said. "The primary issue is trust between buyers and holders of debt." Investors holding worthless or heavily discounted paper are not eager to buy more.

As a result, Gumbinger said problems in the housing market problems are too entrenched for a Fed rate drop to have an immediate impact.

Trust can take time to rebuild. Something that might speed the rebuilding process is better-than-expected earnings from the major Wall Street banks. Tuesday, Lehman Brothers' reported higher-than-forecasted profit, which allayed fears about the wallop that the mortgage crisis may inflict on Wall Street. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns are due to report earnings later this week.

Home prices in many parts of the country remain out of reach for average Americans, leading to slow sales and lengthening inventories of houses on the market. Also adding to listings is a flood of new foreclosures hitting the market.

That inventory is weighing heavily on housing markets, according to Zandi, and much of it will have to sell through before prices start to rise again.

It didn't help market confidence that venerated ex-Fed head Alan Greenspan came out and opined on the possibility of double-digit housing price declines, according to Dean Baker, an economist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy.

"That has to be very worrisome for anyone lending into these markets," said Baker.


Thursday, September 20, 2007 5:15:33 PM
Long Term U.S. Home Prices


Tuesday, September 18, 2007 3:36:37 PM
Fed Cuts Rates

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate for the first time in four years, seeking with an aggressive half-point move to prevent a steep housing slump and turbulent financial markets from triggering a recession.

The Fed announced Tuesday that it was reducing its target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, from 5.25 percent to 4.75 percent. The half-point reduction was double the quarter-point move that many economists had been expecting.

The action was designed to boost economic growth by lowering borrowing costs for millions of consumers and businesses. Commercial banks were expected to quickly match the Fed's action by cutting their prime lending rate. The prime rate has been at 8.25 percent for the past 15 months.

The Fed's action came in the midst of the worst slump in housing in 16 years. That downturn has triggered record defaults in subprime mortgages and roiled financial markets around the globe as investors have become worried about where the spreading credit problems will next appear.


Tuesday, September 18, 2007 3:46:33 PM
The Secret is Out.....Per the NY Times.
The New York Times



September 14, 2007
Havens | Deep Creek Lake in Maryland

High-End Rustic on a Plateau in the Alleghenies

WASHINGTONIANS of means tend to buy their second homes at the seashore. But increasingly they are heading to Deep Creek Lake, a mountain resort region in the Allegheny Mountains of far western Maryland for relief from traditional urban stress, humidity and Washington’s own particular brand of political ennui.

What draws them is the serpentine, 13-mile-long lake, on which are some 3,100 docks and slips, to which are tethered as many as 5,300 boats. Deep Creek Lake is the largest artificial body of water in the state, created in 1925 when a Pennsylvania utility flooded the natural creek to generate electricity.

The lake, in Garrett County, quickly became a vacation spot for the affluent of Pittsburgh, who built log cabins on its shores. When the completion of Interstate 68 in 1991 cut the drive from Washington to three hours, real estate agents say, the number of Washingtonians flocking to the area surged — along with home prices.

Laura and John Domingues, who live in the Maryland suburbs of Washington, found their lot by the lake three years ago, paying $180,000 for .64 acre one block from the water. (Because much of the county is unincorporated, many people don’t live in a town; you’re either near the water or you aren’t.)

“We just fell in love with the place and started looking for property,” said Mrs. Domingues, 42, the marketing director for an investment firm. They are now in search of a builder.

“I can see myself sitting at the piano four or five hours a day, cooking a gourmet meal two hours a day, and going for a hike,” said Mr. Domingues, 54, a malpractice lawyer in Rockville, Md. “I can see myself retiring in this area.”

If so, he will join many other boomers who first came as weekenders, then found themselves settling in for good.

One such group of half a dozen couples call themselves the Geezers. They get together every Wednesday night for double-nickel (55 plus) discount pizza at Uno’s on Route 219, or senior night at the Garrett 8 Cinema. They are in the process of shifting their lives (or have already shifted them) from the Washington area to the mountaintop, the high plateau that describes Garrett County, Maryland’s westernmost county.

Fred and Erin Peacock, who count themselves as Geezers, started with weekends, then retired to the lake. They still keep a condo in Columbia, Md., midway between Washington and Baltimore, but go there less and less. “The truth is, it’s like a motel I stay at when I visit my kids,” Ms. Peacock said. “Fred never wants to go back.” They live in a 2,600-square-foot log-sided house they bought in 2002 for $208,000 in Yough River Estates.

Similarly, Dennis Friedman, 58, a cardiologist who lives in the Washington suburb of Potomac, Md., thrives on getaways to the lakefront home he bought in 1983 for $320,000. “I’m somewhere between a visitor and a local now,” he said.

The Scene

Upscale rustic defines life here, a style that arrived before the highway and the lake. In the 1870s, the B & O Railroad’s president, John W. Garrett, for whom the county is named, built the Deer Park Hotel as a retreat for his Gilded Age buddies. The 1884 Queen Anne Victorian train station, now a gift shop, in the county seat, Oakland, is a remnant of that era. Garrett County today is divided culturally and economically between the lake people and everyone else. The latter includes coal miners and farmers, and Amish communities around Grantsville in the north and Pleasant Valley to the south. Working people don’t frequent the lake, except as seasonal employees.

The lake is all about water sports, like Jet-Skiing and powerboating. There are also tamer pontoon boats and a few sailboats. On a mountainside that overlooks Deep Creek, the Wisp Resort has a golf course and downhill skiing in season. The Adventure Sports Center, a 1,700-foot-long water course on top of Marsh Hill, is nearby.

There are also three state parks that have trails for hiking and cross-country skiing. The area is busiest from Memorial Day to Labor Day, but the population swells again in mid-October during the Autumn Glory Festival, which includes banjo and fiddle championships and antiques and art shows. This year’s festival will run from Oct. 10 to 14.

Oakland, a few miles south, is the region’s cultural hub. It has its own community theater and free summer concerts. And the urban influx has contributed to its modest gentrification, with a community art gallery, a bookstore, a coffee shop, a few boutiques and antiques shops.

“Second-home owners and transplants are our very own clientele,” said Greg Elliott, a transplant from around Baltimore who owns Studio 24E, a shop that carries high-end handbags, Versace sunglasses and jewelry priced in the thousands.

Across the street, Englander’s Pharmacy has been turned into an antiques store but has kept its fountain and its lunch counter. A few miles north of Oakland, the Arrowhead Market sells The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal, along with the local Oakland Republican. The Fireside Deli and Wine Shop sells fancy sandwiches and wine, with a Saturday wine tasting. Even Foodland has a fine-foods section.

Pros

Summer temperatures are at least 10 degrees cooler than in the cities to the east, and opportunities for outdoor activities are abundant. Scenery runs from the merely restful — glades bathed in morning mist — to spectacular mountaintop views and lake sunsets. With the Interstates, Deep Creek is remote yet accessible.

Cons

The Deep Creek region has few designer shops and no malls. Sophisticated palates might find the area cuisine lacking, and Sunday liquor sales are illegal. For those who don’t own lakefront property, access to the water is limited.

The Real Estate Market

Prices fall into three categories, with lakefront the costliest, followed by lake access (with dock rights), and lake area, said Ed King, an agent with Long & Foster. In August, there were 18 properties listed for $1 million or more. In the exclusive Reserve community, lakefront lots alone have sold for $1 million, with one on the market for $2.1 million.

Lakefront property is so valuable that residential trumps commercial. In 2001, Doug McClive sold his restaurant, McClive’s, to a developer who built water-access condos that now sell for $600,000. And most of the old lakeside cabins became teardowns.

In general, the second-home market has held up reasonably well, real estate agents say, especially at the high end on the lakefront. But starts for new homes are down 40 percent in 2007 from 2006, and there have been some price cuts on lake area properties, which sell for between $200,000 and $500,000.

Although construction off the lake has lagged, new homes are still rising on the ridge above it, with “ski-in, ski-out” models being built by the Wisp resort.

LAY OF THE LAND

POPULATION Garrett County, Md., with Deep Creek Lake at its center, has 29,859 residents, according to a 2006 Census Bureau estimate.

SIZE Garrett County is 648 square miles. Deep Creek Lake covers 3,900 acres, with 69 miles of shoreline.

WHO’S BUYING Professionals and executives from the Washington area, as well as Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

GETTING THERE The Deep Creek Lake area is about a three-hour drive from Washington. There is a small county-owned airport that recently expanded its runway to 5,000 feet to accommodate small private jets.

WHILE YOU’RE LOOKING Good Timber Bed & Breakfast (2159 Mayhew Inn Road, Oakland; 301-387-0097; www.goodtimber.net) is a large yet intimate log lodge near a secluded lake cove. Rates are $165 to $220 a night, and include afternoon appetizers and wine (except Sundays), and a full breakfast. The Oak and Apple Bed & Breakfast (208 North Second Street, Oakland; 301-334-9265; www.oakandappleinn.com) is in a Victorian a short walk from the center of town. Rates are $100 to $130 a night, with full breakfast.



Tuesday, September 18, 2007 3:50:15 PM
More Greenspan

September 18, 2007

Greenspan's bubble

Ex-Fed chief blind to own manipulations

In 2001, the nation was in recession. Trillions of dollars evaporated from the stock market crash. Investors were panicking. Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, devised a way to limit the recession's impact and reclaim investor's dollars for the American economy. He dropped federal interest rates to historic lows, fueling a housing boom.

Investors bearish on Wall Street flocked to Main Street. The stock bubble of the late 1990s became the housing bubble of the 2000s, with this significant difference: For all its popularity since the early 1980s, the stock market is still the playing field of the rich. Not so real estate. Close to 70 percent of Americans own their own homes. As the Economist noted in its first warnings of a housing bubble four years ago, "construction, the buying, selling and renting of properties and the imputed benefits to owner-occupiers account for around 15 percent of rich countries' GDP." In other words, what happens in the real estate market affects just about everyone in a way that stock market fluctuations don't.

The housing bubble did just that. National wealth soared. Then the bubble burst. The economy is hurting again. Greenspan, it turned out, did not end the 2001 recession. He deferred it. The result may be a far more severe downturn than if the Federal Reserve had been more prudent with interest rates. Yet here is Greenspan in his new memoir, shifting all blame for current economic troubles, including the consequences of the housing bubble, either on President Bush or on unscrupulous lenders. He wants us to believe that his policies had nothing to do with creating the bubble after 2001.

There's plenty of blame to go around for the mismanagement of the economy since 2000. Paul O'Neill, President Bush's first treasury secretary, described in detail in 2004 how Bush was uninterested in economic policies or fiscal prudence, let alone in vetoing spending bills or regulating the mortgage industry. As treasury secretary, O'Neill warned Bush and on occasion spoke publicly about the spending abandon he was witnessing. Bush fired him in December 2002.

Greenspan was more respected, more famous and more powerful than O'Neill. He could say two words and move markets wildly. His influence on public policy was profound. His public influence on Bush could be equally so. He chose not to use it. Instead, he publicly supported the Bush tax cuts without once saying what he now writes in his memoir: That the tax cuts unbalanced by spending restraint were reckless. "I'm just very disappointed," he told The New York Times in an interview published Monday. "Smaller government, lower spending, lower taxes, less regulation -- they had the resources to do it, they had the knowledge to do it, they had the political majorities to do it. And they didn't."

But Greenspan was among the administration's biggest enablers. He had a bully pulpit. He didn't use it. The convenience of after-the-fact correctives may help fashion the kind of image Greenspan wants to draw about his legacy. It doesn't change the bipolar economy he helped fashion after 2001 -- an economy once high on the housing bubble, now going more sour by the week, with no bottom yet in sight.

Ironically, Ben Bernanke, who replaced Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006, today chairs a meeting of the Fed to decide whether to drop interest rates again in the face of unrelenting bad economic news. He should not perpetuate the cycle of Greenspan idolatry.


Tuesday, September 18, 2007 4:05:43 PM
Changing Demographics
Census Bureau Report Shows Surprising Demographic Changes That Will Impact Housing In the Future

The latest 1,200-table 2006 American Community Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates key changes in social, economic, and housing characteristics for the nation.

As part of the Census Bureau’s re-engineered 2010 Census, the data collected by the ACS helps federal officials determine where to distribute more than $300 billion to state and local governments each year. The 2006 ACS estimates are based on an annual, nationwide sample of about 250,000 addresses per month. In addition, approximately 20,000 group quarters across the United States were sampled, comprising approximately 200,000 residents. Geographic areas for which data are available are based on total populations of 65,000 or more.

Among the findings, which are designed to refresh the often out-of-date 10-year census data, are the following hot topics which will impact housing in the future:

Older Workers

Wages have not kept up with inflation, which is one of the reasons why nearly one in four people between the ages of 65 and 74 (23.2 percent) are still in the labor force (either working or looking for work) in 2006. That's an increase from 19.6 percent in 2000. States with some of the lowest rates of older workers in the labor force include West Virginia (15.7 percent), Michigan (18.8 percent) and Arizona (19.4 percent). Michigan and Arizona were not statistically different.

Some of the highest rates were found in South Dakota, Nebraska and Washington, D.C., all with about one-third of people in this age group in the labor force. Among the 20 largest metro areas, Washington, D.C., had the highest percentage of people in the labor force in this age group (31.8 percent). Others with high percentages include Boston (28.1 percent), Dallas-Fort Worth (27.9 percent), Minneapolis-St. Paul (27.4 percent) and Houston (26.5 percent), none of which were statistically different from the other.

Homeownership

Only recently has homeownership receded slightly, but it has increased overall since 2000, with more than two-thirds of all occupied homes (67.3 percent) currently owned by the occupant, compared to 66.2 percent in 2000. In 2006, the highest rates of homeownership were found in Minnesota (76.3), and some of the lowest were found in New York (55.6 percent) and Washington, D.C. (45.8 percent). Among the 20 largest metro areas, Minneapolis-St. Paul shared the top spot with Detroit (75.2 and 74.6 percent, respectively), with St. Louis ranking third (73.1 percent).

California and Hawaii were the two states with the highest median value of owner-occupied homes (more than $500,000). California cities Newport Beach and Santa Barbara had median home values of about $1 million.

More than half of California homeowners with a mortgage spent 30 percent or more of their household incomes on mortgage payments and other owner costs. Less than a quarter of North Dakota homeowners spent 30 percent or more of their household incomes on mortgage payments other owner costs.

Non-English Speakers

In 2006, about 8 million more people spoke a foreign language at home than in 2000. Nationally, one in five (19.7 percent) over age 5 spoke a language other than English at home, compared to 17.9 percent in 2000. Among the states, California (42.5 percent) had the highest percentage in this category, followed by New Mexico (36.5 percent) and Texas (33.8 percent). About one in 10 California households were linguistically isolated, which means everyone 14 or older in those households had at least some difficulty speaking English.

Among the 20 largest metro areas, more than half of all people over 5 in Los Angeles (53.4 percent) spoke a language other than English at home. Miami ranked second in this category (48.6 percent), followed by San Francisco-Oakland and Riverside, Calif., where about four in 10 spoke a language other than English at home (not statistically different at 39.5 percent and 39 percent, respectively).

Married with Children

The percentage of households that were married-couple families with children under 18 decreased from 23.5 percent in 2000 to 21.6 percent in 2006.

All states, except Connecticut, saw a percentage point decrease in households in this category since 2000. In 2006, Utah had the greatest percentage of married-couple households with children under 18, at 32.3 percent. Other states with high rates included Idaho (25.5 percent), California (24.8 percent), Texas (24.7 percent), New Jersey (24.6 percent) and Alaska (24.3 percent), none of which were statistically different from each other. Florida (18.2 percent) and Washington, D.C. (7.3 percent) had some of the lowest.

Among the 20 largest metro areas, Riverside, Calif., had the highest percentage in this category (29.6 percent), followed by Dallas-Fort Worth (26.6 percent) and Houston (26.1 percent), which were not statistically different from each other.

The ACS estimates released are for the total population and, for the first time, include populations residing in group quarters.


Tuesday, September 18, 2007 4:09:24 PM
D.C. area numbers for 9-14-07
Trend 09/14/2007 1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month
Median Price $407,900 -1.7% -7.7% -7.3% -11.3%
Inventory 12,702 +4.6% +27.5% +45.8% +11.0%

Friday, September 14, 2007 9:07:04 AM
Gerlach Agent Laura McCaffrey on News Channel 7 WJLA

http://cfc.wjla.com/videoondemand.cfm?id=3677


Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:05:19 PM
Home Sale Predictions
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
Realtors Group Foresees 8.6 Percent Drop in Existing Home Sales in 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A trade group for real estate agents on Tuesday lowered its forecast 2007 existing home sales for the seventh-straight month, predicting a drop of 8.6 percent from last year.

The National Association of Realtors' revised monthly prediction calls for U.S. existing home sales of 5.9 million in 2007, down from 6.5 million last year. The forecast was below last month's prediction of a 6.8 percent drop.

This year's sales would be the lowest since 2002, when sales hit 5.6 million. Home sale prices this year are forecast to drop 1.7 percent to a median of $218,200.

Next year, the trade group expects existing home sales to climb to 6.3 million. It forecasts new home sales will fall 24 percent to 801,000 this year and 741,000 next year.

The forecast comes as delinquencies among borrowers with weak, or subprime, credit have risen dramatically over the past year, and other loans are showing weakness as well.

Lawrence Yun, NAR's senior economist, said lower sales are related to the ongoing problems in the mortgage market for people with weak credit and a lack of funding for jumbo home loans above $417,000.

Those loans can't be packaged into securities sold to investors by government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Lenders have been charging higher rates for these loans because they are not backed by Fannie or Freddie.

The real estate trade group described a big cutback in the construction of new homes as a "healthy trend" that will reduce inventory. The group projected construction of new homes will fall to 1.4 million this year from 1.8 million last year.

Last week, the NAR said pending sales of existing homes fell in July to the lowest level in nearly six years as borrowers struggled to finalize home purchases, particularly in expensive areas.

Investors around the world have been spooked by the U.S. mortgage market's problems, amid uncertainty about how much they will grow. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates that 2.5 million mortgages given to borrowers with weak credit will reset at higher rates and sometimes dramatically higher monthly payments by the end of next year.

The number of homeowners receiving foreclosure notices hit a record high in the spring, driven up by problems with subprime mortgages and heavy job losses in Ohio and other Midwest states.


Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:34:35 PM
Home Sales For Chevy Chase, MD (20815) for August 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 40,541,001 $ 31,678,000 27.98 %
Average Sold Price: $ 1,228,515 $ 989,938 24.10 %
Median Sold Price: $ 1,030,000 $ 884,000 16.52 %
Total Units Sold: 33 32 3.13 %
Average Days on Market: 49 28 75.00 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 1,274,200 $ 1,030,000 23.71 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
96.41 % 96.11 %

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:36:32 PM
Home Sales For Chevy Chase, DC (20015) for August 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 15,182,320 $ 14,420,400 5.28 %
Average Sold Price: $ 893,078 $ 801,133 11.48 %
Median Sold Price: $ 875,000 $ 787,500 11.11 %
Total Units Sold: 17 18 - 5.56 %
Average Days on Market: 32 46 - 30.43 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 922,094 $ 839,939 9.78 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
96.85 % 95.38 %

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:38:31 PM
Homes Sales For Bethesda (20814) for August 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 39,230,400 $ 18,087,850 116.89 %
Average Sold Price: $ 912,335 $ 645,995 41.23 %
Median Sold Price: $ 752,500 $ 473,025 59.08 %
Total Units Sold: 43 28 53.57 %
Average Days on Market: 60 58 3.45 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 942,861 $ 677,362 39.20 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
96.76 % 95.37 %

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:39:18 PM
Home Sales For Georgetown/Calvert, DC (20007) for August 2007
  2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 37,425,633 $ 31,895,900 17.34 %
Average Sold Price: $ 813,601 $ 911,311 - 10.72 %
Median Sold Price: $ 726,250 $ 740,000 - 1.86 %
Total Units Sold: 46 35 31.43 %
Average Days on Market: 67 54 24.07 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 838,982 $ 956,180 - 12.26 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
96.97 % 95.31 %

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:39:52 PM
Home Sales For Cleveland Park, DC (20008) for August 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 38,785,500 $ 31,374,025 23.62 %
Average Sold Price: $ 1,020,671 $ 784,351 30.13 %
Median Sold Price: $ 523,500 $ 546,750 - 4.25 %
Total Units Sold: 38 40 - 5.00 %
Average Days on Market: 50 35 42.86 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 1,100,663 $ 818,345 34.50 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
92.73 % 95.85 %

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:40:36 PM
Home Sales For Palisades/Frienship Park, DC (20016) for August 2007
   2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 39,671,350 $ 41,584,999 - 4.60 %
Average Sold Price: $ 721,297 $ 770,093 - 6.34 %
Median Sold Price: $ 550,000 $ 587,500 - 6.38 %
Total Units Sold: 55 54 1.85 %
Average Days on Market: 43 53 - 18.87 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 749,336 $ 801,006 - 6.45 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
96.26 % 96.14 %

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:41:20 PM
Home Sales For Bethesda, MD (20817), MD for August 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 4,109,600 $ 5,538,550 - 25.80 %
Average Sold Price: $ 373,600 $ 346,159 7.93 %
Median Sold Price: $ 385,000 $ 370,000 4.05 %
Total Units Sold: 11 16 - 31.25 %
Average Days on Market: 116 45 157.78 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 401,132 $ 359,565 11.56 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
93.14 % 96.27 %

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:42:35 PM
Home Sales For Brookmont, MD (20816) for August 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 39,671,350 $ 41,584,999 - 4.60 %
Average Sold Price: $ 721,297 $ 770,093 - 6.34 %
Median Sold Price: $ 550,000 $ 587,500 - 6.38 %
Total Units Sold: 55 54 1.85 %
Average Days on Market: 43 53 - 18.87 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 749,336 $ 801,006 - 6.45 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
96.26 % 96.14 %

Tuesday, September 11, 2007 2:43:59 PM
Home Sales For Cabin John, MD (20818) for August 2007
  2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 445,000 $ 674,000 - 33.98 %
Average Sold Price: $ 445,000 $ 674,000 - 33.98 %
Median Sold Price: $ 445,000 $ 674,000 - 33.98 %
Total Units Sold: 1 1 0.00 %
Average Days on Market: 37 77 - 51.95 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 479,000 $ 699,000 - 31.47 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
92.90 % 96.42 %

Tuesday, September 04, 2007 9:58:55 AM
Home Sales For Chevy Chase, MD (20815) for July 2007

 

 

   2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 38,963,500 $ 49,382,935 - 21.10 %
Average Sold Price: $ 1,145,985 $ 1,050,701 9.07 %
Median Sold Price: $ 962,000 $ 945,000 1.80 %
Total Units Sold: 34 47 - 27.66 %
Average Days on Market: 46 60 - 23.33 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 1,188,829 $ 1,111,200 6.99 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
96.40 % 94.56 %

Tuesday, September 04, 2007 10:01:35 AM
Homes Sales For Bethesda, MD (20814) for July 2007

 

  2007

   2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 25,081,800 $ 22,248,999 12.73 %
Average Sold Price: $ 677,886 $ 674,212 0.54 %
Median Sold Price: $ 635,000 $ 599,000 6.01 %
Total Units Sold: 37 33 12.12 %
Average Days on Market: 51 35 45.71 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 698,276 $ 708,385 - 1.43 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
97.08 % 95.18 %

Tuesday, September 04, 2007 10:04:11 AM
Home Sales For Brookmont, MD (20816) for July 2007

 

 2007

 

  2006

  

%
Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 13,234,150 $ 12,557,000 5.39 %
Average Sold Price: $ 1,018,012 $ 837,133 21.61 %
Median Sold Price: $ 925,000 $ 895,000 3.35 %
Total Units Sold: 13 15 - 13.33 %
Average Days on Market: 60 35 71.43 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 1,049,131 $ 832,327 26.05 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
97.03 % 100.58 %

Tuesday, September 04, 2007 10:06:32 AM
Home Sales For Bethesda, MD (20817) for July 2007

  2007

   2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 56,345,676 $ 42,742,100 31.83 %
Average Sold Price: $ 1,063,126 $ 971,411 9.44 %
Median Sold Price: $ 800,000 $ 748,500 6.88 %
Total Units Sold: 53 44 20.45 %
Average Days on Market: 49 58 - 15.52 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 1,125,657 $ 1,035,987 8.66 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
94.44 % 93.77 %

Tuesday, September 04, 2007 10:10:17 AM
Home Sales For Cabin John, MD (20818) for July 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 0 $ 5,605,857 - 100.00 %
Average Sold Price: $ 0 $ 1,121,171 - 100.00 %
Median Sold Price: $ 0 $ 960,000 - 100.00 %
Total Units Sold: 0 5 - 100.00 %
Average Days on Market: 0 65 - 100.00 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 0 $ 1,159,000 - 100.00 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
N/A 96.74 %

Tuesday, September 04, 2007 10:17:00 AM
Home Sales For Palisades/Frienship Park, DC (20016) for July 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 39,142,310 $ 34,206,766 14.43 %
Average Sold Price: $ 798,823 $ 760,150 5.09 %
Median Sold Price: $ 780,000 $ 635,000 22.83 %
Total Units Sold: 49 45 8.89 %
Average Days on Market: 64 36 77.78 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 840,080 $ 784,041 7.15 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
95.09 % 96.95 %

Tuesday, September 04, 2007 10:18:03 AM
Home Sales For Chevy Chase, DC (20015) for July 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 32,122,255 $ 21,005,000 52.93 %
Average Sold Price: $ 944,772 $ 1,000,238 - 5.55 %
Median Sold Price: $ 875,000 $ 800,000 9.38 %
Total Units Sold: 34 21 61.90 %
Average Days on Market: 21 22 - 4.55 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 954,050 $ 1,035,714 - 7.88 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
99.03 % 96.57 %

Tuesday, September 04, 2007 10:28:26 AM
Home Sales For Georgetown/Calvert, DC (20007) for July 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 46,609,200 $ 48,198,697 - 3.30 %
Average Sold Price: $ 863,133 $ 876,340 - 1.51 %
Median Sold Price: $ 718,750 $ 730,275 - 1.58 %
Total Units Sold: 54 55 - 1.82 %
Average Days on Market: 58 43 34.88 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 897,137 $ 903,482 - 0.70 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
96.21 % 97.00 %

Tuesday, September 04, 2007 10:28:44 AM
Home Sales For Cleveland Park, DC (20008) for July 2007
2007    2006    % Change
Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 42,473,055 $ 29,777,610 42.63 %
Average Sold Price: $ 1,011,263 $ 661,725 52.82 %
Median Sold Price: $ 452,000 $ 469,000 - 3.62 %
Total Units Sold: 42 45 - 6.67 %
Average Days on Market: 54 36 50.00 %
Average List Price for Solds: $ 1,036,633 $ 692,878 49.61 %
Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
97.55 % 95.50 %

Monday, June 28, 2010
Monday, June 28, 2010
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Friday, June 04, 2010