Tuesday, August 26, 2008 2:58:53 PM
Outlook Up.
Consumer outlook up, housing bottom may be near

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO, AP Business Writer1 hour, 14 minutes ago

Americans felt better about the economy in August, as a barometer of sentiment posted the biggest boost in two years amid falling gas prices. Two reports suggested that a bottom could be nearing for the housing market, but economists caution it's too early to proclaim that the worst is over.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 56.9, up from a revised 51.9 in July. That's the largest gain since August 2006, and is ahead of the 53 expected by economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.

It's also the second month in a row that sentiment improved, after a six-month slide since January — but it remains about half what it was a year ago, and worries about the job market persisted.

"It's still too early to call a bottom" on both confidence and housing, said Gary Thayer, senior economist at Wachovia Securities.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index released Tuesday showed home prices dropped a record 15.4 percent during the second quarter. However, the rate of single-family home price declines slowed from May to June, a possible silver lining.

Sales of new homes rose in July, but still fell short of economists' expectations, and home prices continued to sink. Still, the July increase followed a sharp downward revision to June's sales.

"Consumer confidence readings suggest that the economy remains stuck in neutral, but may be showing signs of improvement by early next year," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. However, "overall readings are still quite low by historical standards, and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us."

Economists and investors closely monitor consumer sentiment as consumer spending represents about two-thirds of all economic activity.

Falling gas prices in recent weeks helped boost consumers' mood, Franco said. Gas prices have dropped 15 cents a gallon in the last two weeks, according to the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations nationwide, released Sunday. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at self-serve stations was $3.70 on Friday.

Despite that, gas nationally was almost 95 cents a gallon higher than a year ago, and the volatility in oil prices are a big concern for investors. But Tuesday's reports helped offset a spike in oil prices that rose out of concerns Hurricane Gustav might hit installations in the Gulf of Mexico in coming days. In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 5.86, or 0.05 percent, to 11,392.11.

The Conference Board's index that measures shoppers' current assessment of the economy declined to 63.2 from 65.8 in July. But the one that gauges their outlook over the next six months jumped to 52.8 from 42.7 in July. The 10-point increase marked the biggest gain since November 2005, when the economic fallout of hurricane Katrina was subsiding.

Franco said that declines in the Present Situation Index, both in term of business conditions and the labor market, appear to be moderating.

While economists say they can't underestimate the relief among consumers to see gas prices come down, Americans are still faced with a number of challenges as they head into the crucial fall and holiday selling seasons, from a weak job market to tight credit conditions and the housing slump.

"It's encouraging to see the benefit of lower gas prices helping consumers a bit," Thayer said. But he noted that there's still a lot of worry out there. As for the housing market, he cautioned that mortgage rates have not come down and tighter lending standards could stall any housing recovery.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller report showed that 14 cities in the monthly index showed improvement from May to June, but nine recorded positive returns. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 2.4 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 515,000 units, the most since April. But sales in June had dropped to a pace of just 503,000 — down from previous estimates of 530,000 — to mark the worst performance since September 1991.

Economists projected sales to drop in July, but expected the pace to be around 525,000. Given June's sharp downward revision, the level of home sales in July wound up to be less than analysts were anticipating.

The Consumer Confidence report — derived from responses received through Aug. 19 of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households — showed people's current assessment of the labor market turned bleaker.

Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32.0 percent from 30.2 percent in July, while those who found them "plentiful" declined to 13.1 percent from 13.6 percent. Their outlook for what's ahead in the labor market was less gloomy. The percent anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead decreased to 30.6 percent from 37.3 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 10.5 percent from 8.0 percent.


Monday, August 25, 2008 2:55:31 PM
Good News!
August 26, 2008

Home Sales Increase, and So Do Inventories

Home sales perked up in July, a respite for the housing slump, as falling prices appeared to lure more buyers into the market.

But the number of homes for sale increased significantly as well, which could push prices down even further. While lower prices could spur sales, they also cut into homeowners’ equity and household worth.

Sales of previously owned homes, which make up most of the nation’s housing supply, rose 3.1 percent last month, making July the best month for sales since February 2007. Economists had expected an increase of 1.2 percent. Still, sales in July were 13.2 percent lower than the 5.76 million annual pace in July a year ago.

Sales are running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units, a private trade group, the National Association of Realtors, said on Monday. That is the fastest pace in five months.

“Hard to avoid the conclusion that sales have bottomed out,” Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics wrote in a note. A wave of foreclosures and tighter lending standards had scared off many would-be purchasers from the market, which has entered its worst slump since the Great Depression.

But another factor hindering sales has been a prevailing sense among Americans that prices could drop even further. Monday’s report added more evidence that this could be the case.

Inventories rose 3.9 percent in July, led by a significant jump in the number of apartments for sale. The supply of single-family homes declined, an encouraging sign for the values of those homes.

“Inventories are very high relative to sales rates, and would probably be even more so if all those wishing to sell their home actually had the house on the market instead of pulling it off in the face of weak demand and eroding prices,” Joshua Shapiro, chief domestic economist at the research firm MFR, wrote in a note.

“There is still a considerable distance to travel before prices sink to levels necessary to balance supply and demand in the housing market,” he wrote.

The median price for a previously owned home fell in July to $212,400 from $215,100 in June. Last month’s price was 7.1 percent below the level in July 2007.

Apartment prices fared slightly better, declining 2.7 percent from a year ago. Demand may be slightly higher for condominiums and co-op apartments, sales of which rose 3.4 percent in July. Sales of previously owned single-family homes were up 3.1 percent for the month.

In Western states, sales were actually higher than they were a year ago, the only region in the country to see an annual increase. Western sales rose 9.7 percent in July; they were up 5.9 percent in the Northeast, rose 0.9 percent in the Midwest and declined 0.5 percent in the South.

At the current sales rate, it would take 11.2 months to work off the entire supply of homes on the market.


Tuesday, August 05, 2008 2:54:38 PM
Fed Keeps Rate..........

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve, confronted with the perils of a slumping economy and rising inflation, has decided for a second straight meeting to leave interest rates unchanged.

The Fed announced Tuesday that it was keeping its target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, at 2 percent.

The decision to leave rates alone had been widely expected by financial markets. The Fed is currently caught between the opposing forces of what many economists believe is a recession and rising inflation pressures, triggered by this year's huge runup in energy prices.

The Fed decision means that commercial banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans, will remain unchanged at 5 percent, its lowest level since late 2004.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are being forced to navigate treacherous waters, trying to keep the economy from plunging into a deep recession while worrying that by keeping interest rates so low they could trigger a dangerous inflation spiral.

In a brief statement explaining its decision, Fed officials cited both concerns.

"Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the committee," the Fed said.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

WASHINGTON (AP) _ The Federal Reserve, confronted with the perils of a slumping economy and rising inflation, has decided for a second straight meeting to leave interest rates unchanged.

The Fed announced Tuesday that it was keeping its target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, at 2 percent.

The decision has been widely expected by financial markets. The Fed is caught between what many economists believe is a recession and rising inflation pressures, triggered by this year's huge runup in energy prices.

The Fed decision means that commercial banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans, will remain unchanged at 5 percent, its lowest level since late 2004.


Friday, August 01, 2008 4:28:06 PM
New Tax Credit for First Time Buyers.....The Details
Tax credit will act as interest-free loan to entice home buying
By Ken Harney | Washington Post Writers Group
Published: 8/1/2008 12:05 AM

WASHINGTON - Anybody who's been sitting on the sidelines hesitant to jump into real estate until conditions settle down should know these dates: April 9, 2008, through June 30, 2009.

They mark the eligibility time span to qualify for the home purchase tax credit created by the massive housing bill approved by Congress. If you have not owned a house during the past three years - or are considering buying your first home - and can go to closing before the end of next June, you may be eligible for up to a $7,500 credit against your federal taxes for 2008 or 2009 ($3,750 if you file taxes as a single person).

The new credit is expected to benefit hundreds of thousands of buyers, although Congress set no limit on how many people can qualify. Since the specifics of the credit changed during the past month as the Senate and House negotiated a final compromise, here's a quick overview of the credit in its final form.

• The basic idea: To jump-start housing sales and clear out local unsold real estate inventories, Congress is offering tax credits to pull in new purchasers. Buy any house - new, old, any location or condition, any price range within the designated time period - and the IRS will cut up to $7,500 off your tax bill for either this year or next. For example, if you're an eligible buyer of a home this year and you owe the IRS $4,000 on your total 2008 income tax bill, your $7,500 tax credit could wipe out everything you owe plus get you a $3,500 refund. The new home purchase tax credit is what the government calls "refundable;" If your tax bill is less than the credit amount, you get the difference back from the Treasury.

• Eligibility rules: Do you own a home now? If so, you're not eligible for the credit. Did you sell your home more three years ago and now rent? You are eligible. The same is true if you've never owned a home before. Close on a house before next June 30 and you can claim a credit of up to 10 percent of the purchase price of the property up to a maximum of $7,500. If your adjusted gross income exceeds $150,000 ($75,000 for singles), the credit maximum begins to phase down in increments. You cannot claim the credit if you are a nonresident alien, financed the property using a state or local housing agency tax-exempt bond mortgage, or do not plan to use the house as your principal residence. Purchasers in the District of Columbia using the city's first-time buyer credit program cannot double-dip and use the new federal credit as well.

• Payback: Unlike some past tax credit programs, this one requires beneficiaries to repay the credit over an extended period of years. Starting in the second tax year after purchase and continuing for up to 15 years, taxpayers are expected to make pro rata repayments to the government on their federal filings. Over a 15-year payback period for the full $7,500 credit, the cost would be $500 a year. If you sell the house before the end of the repayment period, and you have no gain on the sale, you won't be expected to pay the credit back from the proceeds. If you have a net gain, the "recapture" cannot exceed the amount of your gain. In other words, the federal government is taking on all or much of the risk that the value of your new house won't increase over time.

At its core, the new tax credit functions very much like an interest-free loan for up to $7,500. You pay the principal back in increments over time, but there's no interest charge to you.

Rob Dietz, an economist for the National Association of Home Builders, says the new credit not only will pull first-time buyers into the market, but also have a powerful "multiplier effect" as thousands of sellers of these credit-assisted houses go out and purchase replacement homes for themselves - extending the impact of the credit into the move-up segment.

How do you claim the credit? If you pass the eligibility tests and buy before June 30, you simply request the credit on your tax return for either 2008 or 2009, which will be modified for that purpose. Even if you purchase in 2009, you can take the credit against your 2008 taxes by filing an amended return. The homebuilders association is launching an educational Web site, www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com, with additional information for people.


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