Tuesday, April 28, 2009 11:50:07 AM
Consumer Confidence Soars

Consumer confidence soars in April

NEW YORK – Hopeful signs that the worst may be over for the economy boosted Americans' moods in April, sending a closely watched barometer of sentiment to the highest level since November.

The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose more than 12 points to 39.2, up from a revised 26.9 in March. The reading marks the highest level since November's 44.7 and well surpasses economists' expectations for 29.5.

The consumer confidence survey showed a substantial improvement in consumers' short-term outlook, including even their assessment of the job picture.

Some encouraging news in areas like retail sales and housing have helped fuel a recent stock rally. A housing index showed Tuesday that home prices dropped sharply in February, but for the first time in 25 months the decline was not a record — another sign the housing crisis could be bottoming. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 13.78 to 8,038.78 by midmorning as investors set aside worries about spread of swine flu and the viability of banks.

Improvements in the stock market have helped boost shoppers' moods, said Gary Thayer, chief economist at Wachovia Securities, but major economic problems remain — and that means that confidence could bounce up and down for awhile, he said.

"We can't say we have seen the bottom of the economy," he said. "We still have some economic concerns that we have to work through."

Economists closely monitor consumer sentiment because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

The huge jump in confidence follows a small increase in March, following a freefall in February. Still, the index remains well below year-ago levels of 62.8.

The April gains were fueled by "a significant improvement in the short-term outlook," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.

She added that the index measuring how shoppers feel now, which posted a moderate gain, offered "a sign that conditions have not deteriorated further and may even moderately improve in the second quarter."

The Present Situation rose slightly to 23.7 from 21.9 last month. The Expectations Index, which measures how shoppers feel about the economy over the next six months, skyrocketed to 49.5 from 30.2 in March.

That sharp increase — which marked the largest jump since a 13-point gain in November 2005 when the economy was recovering from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita — suggests that people believe the economy is nearing a bottom, Franco said. Still, she noted that the index remains well below the level associated with strong economic growth.

"It looks like the worst is behind us, but clearly we are not out of the woods," said Franco.

With companies continuing to lay off workers, a major fear is that people will cut back their spending even more, and that could plunge the economy further into a downward spiral. Economists expect the unemployment rate — now at 8.5 percent and the highest since late 1983 — will hit 10 percent by the end of the year and keep climbing next year before it starts coming down.

Meanwhile, investors are becoming more unsettled by the possibility of a major swine flu outbreak, which could stall economic recovery — particularly in regions that depend on travel and tourism. Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Securities, said such a development could dampen confidence levels for May, but it's still early to tell.

The consumer confidence survey showed that those anticipating business conditions will worsen over the next six months declined to 25.3 percent from 37.8 percent, while those expecting conditions to improve increased to 15.6 percent from 9.6 percent in March.

The employment outlook was also considerably less pessimistic. The percentage of consumers anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead declined to 33.6 percent from 41.6 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 13.9 percent from 7.3 percent.


Tuesday, April 21, 2009 11:51:22 AM
Case Shiller D.C. Housing Prices 2000-2009 Three Tier
2000 1 100 100 100 100
2000 2 100.99 100.26 100.38 100.53
2000 3 101.05 101.46 101.81 101.7
2000 4 101.84 103.26 103.72 103.34
2000 5 102.92 105.31 105.31 104.91
2000 6 103.76 106.12 107.3 106.29
2000 7 105.07 107.18 108.86 107.72
2000 8 105.46 108.63 110.36 109.1
2000 9 106.89 109.96 111.24 110.18
2000 10 107.35 110.51 111.72 110.5
2000 11 108.84 110.8 112.52 110.99
2000 12 110.09 111.57 113.6 111.96
2001 1 110.97 112.57 114.07 112.73
2001 2 112.01 114 115.15 113.99
2001 3 113.21 116.18 116.24 115.4
2001 4 115.02 118.49 119.19 117.9
2001 5 116.1 120.24 120.52 119.3
2001 6 117.67 121.75 122.22 120.93
2001 7 119.42 123.59 123.02 122.31
2001 8 120.58 125.35 124.02 123.61
2001 9 121.81 126.48 124.66 124.5
2001 10 122.45 126.72 125.31 124.87
2001 11 123.39 126.94 125.04 124.93
2001 12 124.68 127.56 125.57 125.65
2002 1 125.46 127.79 125.74 125.99
2002 2 126.68 129.09 126.89 127.19
2002 3 127.68 131.22 127.66 128.47
2002 4 130.42 133.92 129.69 130.78
2002 5 132.7 137.09 131.92 133.4
2002 6 134.91 138.94 134.52 135.67
2002 7 138.39 141.88 136.78 138.48
2002 8 141.63 143.55 138.92 140.68
2002 9 144.69 145.46 139.8 142.39
2002 10 145.37 146.59 140.54 143.3
2002 11 146.39 147.37 140.47 143.77
2002 12 147.76 148.46 141.71 144.96
2003 1 148.72 148.28 141.91 145.19
2003 2 149.97 148.74 142.72 146.01
2003 3 151.56 149.98 142.56 146.75
2003 4 154.11 152.63 144.16 148.92
2003 5 156.85 155.38 146.42 151.53
2003 6 159.48 158.49 148.55 154
2003 7 162.65 161.1 150.93 156.47
2003 8 166.22 163.97 152.54 158.7
2003 9 169 166.35 154.62 161.01
2003 10 170.74 168.42 155.51 162.65
2003 11 171.44 169.86 156.76 164.14
2003 12 173.82 170.97 158.55 165.79
2004 1 176.89 172.73 160.51 167.79
2004 2 178.42 174.4 162 169.51
2004 3 180.7 177.82 164.02 172.3
2004 4 184.86 182.27 168.36 176.62
2004 5 192.76 188.32 172.9 182.19
2004 6 200.49 194.61 178.46 188.02
2004 7 206.02 198.97 182.06 192.08
2004 8 210.79 202.6 184.88 195.39
2004 9 214.4 205.51 186.92 198.24
2004 10 217.84 207.61 188.58 200.79
2004 11 220.07 209.88 190.36 203.31
2004 12 224.59 212.03 192.22 206.06
2005 1 227.86 214.74 193.98 208.63
2005 2 231.66 218.28 197.08 212.24
2005 3 237.73 225.06 201.63 217.86
2005 4 245.12 231.88 207.61 224.09
2005 5 252.72 238.9 212.91 229.87
2005 6 260.77 244.93 217.56 235.38
2005 7 268.89 249.44 220.4 239.5
2005 8 274.53 252.58 221.54 242.06
2005 9 278.69 253.94 222.28 244.11
2005 10 279.59 254.87 221.86 245.44
2005 11 281.66 254.3 221.43 246.7
2005 12 283.36 255.26 221.05 247.37
2006 1 284.86 255.3 220.16 247.7
2006 2 285.74 255.61 219.72 248.39
2006 3 286.48 255.22 220.2 248.86
2006 4 289.81 257.43 221.63 250.17
2006 5 293.43 259.47 222.31 251.07
2006 6 296.5 259.56 223.03 250.99
2006 7 296.75 258.55 222.78 249.92
2006 8 296.55 257 221.53 247.94
2006 9 294.22 254.25 218.05 244.78
2006 10 293.15 251.17 216.63 243.73
2006 11 291.17 248.61 214.29 242.28
2006 12 290.01 246.95 211.99 240.45
2007 1 289.57 246.08 210.26 238.85
2007 2 290.54 244.54 209.47 237.98
2007 3 290.88 244.39 209.13 237.14
2007 4 288.81 244.17 209.33 236.17
2007 5 286.92 243.91 210.84 235.41
2007 6 285.42 241.28 211.59 234.02
2007 7 282.43 240.29 211.54 232.17
2007 8 279.41 238.81 211.09 230.21
2007 9 276.09 237.49 210.68 229.25
2007 10 274.46 232.86 208.89 227.56
2007 11 270.14 226.96 204.81 223.85
2007 12 262.5 221.74 200.66 218.35
2008 1 255.91 216.03 197.11 213.2
2008 2 248.93 208.47 193.47 207.95
2008 3 238.03 203.13 190.67 203.39
2008 4 231.7 200.41 190.36 201.32
2008 5 223.05 198.28 190.1 199.27
2008 6 215.43 196.41 190.4 197.61
2008 7 207.18 194.05 189.48 195.44
2008 8 203.65 191.92 189.06 194.16
2008 9 197.26 187.47 185.73 190.01
2008 10 189.77 181.62 182.36 184.82
2008 11 181.65 178.16 178.71 180.27
2008 12 171.96 172.14 177.37 175.55
2009 1 161.4 168.46 175.43 171.97

Friday, April 03, 2009 11:24:36 AM
A Bust of Activity

Real estate agents seeing early bursts of home buying

Washington Business Journal - by Melissa Castro Staff Reporter

Just in case an improving market for home sales wasn’t enough to attract real estate agents to an open house near Dupont Circle, Coldwell Banker agent Dwight Mortensen, third from the right, sweetened the deal with snacks, which brought in Jim Norris of W.C. & A.N. Miller, left, and Alex Gabriel of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.
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Just as surely as tulips and daffodils poke out of Washington’s moist spring soil, homebuyers are waking up from their own long hibernation. This time, though, they are ready to make deals.

Local real estate agents say the market has returned with a furor in the past month, leaving agents not washed out by the economic storm scrambling to keep up with a burgeoning swell of buyers at all points on the price spectrum.

On the last Sunday in March, nearly 200 people coursed through an open house for a $1.6 million red-bricked row house at 1511 Q St. NW, tucked between the Dupont and Logan Circle neighborhoods.

It was the busiest open house Coldwell Banker agent Dwight Mortensen has hosted since he began selling homes in 2002.

“Literally, within an hour after we loaded the listing online, 42 people clicked on it,” he said, wiping sweat from his brow after baking miniature cupcakes for a special weekday open house to show the home for other real estate agents.

The four-bedroom house drew nearly 50 agents to Tuesday’s event. “We only came for the red velvet cupcakes,” Mary Jo Wilson, an agent at The Long & Foster Cos.’ W.C. & A.N. Miller branch said with a wink as she passed Mortensen.

The mood was light in part because agents are feeling an optimism that has been missing since the local market started its slow but steady decline in late 2005. It’s an optimism that can’t be explained by the official statistics, which lag behind the current market and showed fewer listings, fewer pending sales and fewer settlements in D.C. this February than last.

D.C.’s February sales volume dropped more than 30 percent from February 2008, and the median price — the price at which half the houses sold for more and half for less — dove 13 percent, according to data from the area’s multiple-listings service, Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc. (The average sold price was down just 6.78 percent from the previous February.)

And while homes took an average of 92 days to sell last February, houses sold this February had languished for 112 days.

Yet today’s exuberance isn’t entirely irrational. Preliminary March numbers show the volume of pending sales is up 11 percent from last March in D.C., and many agents say they are even dealing with bidding wars again.

Mortensen’s Dupont Circle office dealt with 12 multiple-offer situations last week, said his managing broker, Kevin McDuffie. One of McDuffie’s agents wrote offers for five homes the week of March 23 — only three were accepted.

That does not mean prices are escalating into the stratosphere, though. The winning bids typically come in at or just above the asking price, with very few contingencies for inspections, appraisals and the like, McDuffie and others said.

“It’s definitely different now,” said Chuck Ruoff, an agent in Coldwell Banker’s Georgetown office. “People who are out are seriously looking. They’re not just curious.”

Why is it different? Joseph Himali, a self-employed broker who presides over the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors, said he thinks both the economic crisis and the federal government are responsible for the turnaround.

“The low, low end of the market is red hot,” he said. “In Prince William and upper Montgomery counties, you’re starting to see them clear inventory just as quickly as they come on the market.”

The preliminary numbers appear to bear that out.

Compared to the same time last year, pending sales were up 47 percent in Fairfax County in March and 32 percent in Montgomery County, said Fred Kendrick, a number-crunching associate broker at TTR Sotheby’s International Realty. Pricing in both of those markets has been under duress from the subprime mortgage crisis.

And, while everyone would like to score a rock-bottom deal, the excitement — at least in the District — isn’t limited to the foreclosure and short-sale markets.

“Buyers aren’t just looking at foreclosures anymore — they’re actually looking at real property,” said Mary Jane Molik, one of Wilson’s colleagues at W.C. & A.N. Miller.

Last summer, Molik said, she regularly fielded calls asking if her listing was a foreclosure. When the answer was no, the line would go dead. The pressure pushed the price of one of her otherwise non-distressed Gaithersburg listings from $675,000 down to $499,000.

Now, with the government offering incentives to lure buyers, even fully priced property is selling again, as long as it is in good condition and priced fairly.

“Looking at the $400,000 to $700,000 range, the market is still very, very strong because of the low interest rates and the $8,000 tax credit,” Himali said.

Even the condominium market is starting to pick back up, as the “Let’s Make a Deal” days with struggling new-construction developers wind down.

In the upper pricing echelons, things aren’t quite as rosy. “People in the $700,000, $800,000 or $900,000 range are too wealthy to qualify for that stimulus [tax credit],” Himali said.

They are also having trouble finding financing for those loan amounts, which exceed the $729,750 cap on loans the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will buy.

As a result, the upper price range is simply “warm,” Himali said. “People are interested and excited, but they go out and see that interest rates are high, that they need a lot of cash and good credit, and they become a lot cooler to the idea of buying a new home.”

The tumultuous 2008 market flushed out many real estate agents who were lacking the experience, savings or intestinal fortitude to ride out the turmoil. McDuffie’s Dupont Circle office opened with just seven agents in 2004 and swelled to 87 by 2007. Last year, 20 or so dropped out of the mix.

The survivors are working hard to market property, counsel timid buyers and terrified sellers, and constantly adjust prices.

“I’ve been licensed since 1981, so I’ve seen this culling of the herd before,” McDuffie said. “This crisis has really put everybody on notice that you have to be serious about your business. I have more agents doing business plans and thinking about their careers now, because you can’t just wing it anymore.”

Mortensen’s business partner on the $1.6 million Dupont house, David Bediz, had jumped into the business in 2004 while the market was hot. Their hustle and drive — and Bediz’s experience with Internet marketing — have kept them among D.C.’s top producers, but it hasn’t been easy. “It’s twice the work for half the money,” Bediz said, offering another cupcake.


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